The Rumor and Potential of J-10CE in the Egyptian Air Force

Has the Egyptian Air Force received the J-10CE fighter jets so soon? In recent days, domestic media in Egypt suddenly started spreading the news that the Egyptian Air Force has received the first batch of J-10CE fighter jets from China. Egyptian self - media also followed closely, highly praising the J-10CE and stating that its incorporation into the Egyptian Air Force is of great strategic significance...

This strong reaction to the J-10CE in Egypt has even affected Pakistan thousands of miles away. Many media and self - media accounts in Pakistan on X have reposted and commented on this news, regarding it as direct proof that the combat effectiveness of the J-10CE should not be underestimated. Has Egypt really received the J-10CE? Is the Egyptian Air Force already equipped with the J-10CE? Is it true or false? It's really confusing.

Of course, the rumor that the Egyptian Air Force would import the J-10CE fighter jets has been around since the Egypt Airshow in August last year. Whether it's confirmed or not, let's not discuss for now. At the Zhuhai Airshow in November last year, outside the aerospace museum, the Aviation Industry Corporation of China specially brought a J-10CE for export. The aircraft was very beautifully made with exquisite craftsmanship, and the aviation weapons it was equipped with were dazzling. At that time, there were rumors on - site that this J-10CE brought for the exhibition was actually the first mass - produced export model intended for the Egyptian Air Force. Although the rumor seemed quite believable, it's still incredible to say that the Egyptian Air Force is already operating the J-10CE in Egypt. There are two problems:

First, when did the Egyptian Air Force start receiving the J-10CE? As we all know, the main foreign military customer of the J-10CE at present is still the Pakistan Air Force. The Pakistan Air Force ordered the first two squadrons, a total of 36 J-10CPs in 2021 and the delivery started in 2022. However, due to certain factors, the delivery of the later batch of fighter jets was delayed and is estimated to have just been completed. After that, it is reported that the Pakistan Air Force has also ordered a second batch of J-10CPs. That is to say, currently, the production capacity of our J-10CE fighter jets is probably still prioritized for the Pakistan Air Force to complete all its export orders. So, with the heavy pressure of both domestic and export production, it's questionable how much production capacity the Chinese aviation industry can spare to fulfill the order for the Egyptian Air Force.

Second, even if the Egyptian Air Force has received the J-10CE, why is there no detail at all? After all, in this era of the Internet and information, such a major action as the hand - over of fighter jets can't be hidden from any open - source intelligence (OSINT) or ordinary people. During the flight, ADS - B can monitor it. As long as you download a flight - tracking software, you can easily know that a batch of J-10CE fighter jets is flying from China to Egypt. This is how the hand - over of the FK - 3 air defense system to Serbia by our Y-20 transport aircraft was exposed. If the distance from China to Egypt is too long, for example, if the Antonov An - 124 - 100 transport aircraft of Volga - Dnepr Airlines in Russia is hired to disassemble and transport the J-10CE, relevant intelligence such as commercial bills can be found with a little effort. After all, Russia's secrecy is not very good. At the Zhuhai Airshow last year, we knew there was a Su - 57E in the An - 124 before it even landed. At the very least, when the J-10CE makes stopovers, finally arrives in Egypt, and the Egyptian Air Force starts the preparation and organizes training flights, etc. As long as someone takes out a mobile phone to shoot a video and upload it to the Internet, it can't be hidden and will be exposed immediately. Don't expect these Middle Eastern countries to have strong secrecy awareness.

So, currently, it's just the Egyptian Air Force's claim without any evidence or confirmation that Egypt has indeed received and is using this batch of J-10CE... However, it is considered that at least these aircraft are not in Egypt yet, at least not delivered to the Egyptian military within the Egyptian territory. However, there is another possibility that these J-10CEs of the Egyptian Air Force have actually been manufactured and are already the property of the Egyptian Air Force. But the aircraft are still in China and haven't left... This is entirely possible. According to the situation revealed by the Pakistan Air Force later, the first batch of J-10CPs of the Pakistan Air Force was actually manufactured in the second half of 2021. However, the conversion training of the Pakistan Air Force pilots started at the end of 2021 and lasted for three months. In early 2022, the training on the J-10CP began, and it was also carried out in China. After several months, when the Chinese side considered that the Pakistan Air Force pilots had obtained the flying qualification for the J-10CP, the Pakistani pilots officially flew the aircraft back to their country and participated in the Pakistan Day Parade in March 2022. So, it's possible that the situation of the Egyptian Air Force's J-10CE is similar - the aircraft have been manufactured and handed over to the Egyptian Air Force, but the Egyptian Air Force pilots haven't obtained the relevant qualifications and are still in training. Therefore, the aircraft exist and belong to Egypt, but they just haven't returned to Egypt... This can also explain why the Egyptian media suddenly reported that "the Egyptian Air Force has incorporated the first batch of J-10CE". It seems that the aircraft will have to wait a while before officially returning to Egypt.

From a technical and tactical performance perspective, it's no wonder that the Egyptian Air Force attaches so much importance to and is so excited about these J-10CE fighter jets. After all, this is the best - performing air - combat aircraft in the Egyptian Air Force, without a doubt. The paper strength of the Egyptian Air Force is not bad. The whole army is equipped with one squadron of F - 16A/B fighter jets, one squadron of Mirage 2000 fighter jets, eight squadrons of F - 16C/D fighter jets, one squadron of Mirage 2000 - 5E2 fighter jets, two squadrons of Rafale fighter jets, and three squadrons of MiG - 29M/M2 fighter jets. The whole army has 32 F - 16A/B fighter jets, 175 F - 16C/D fighter jets, 29 French - made Mirage 2000/2000 - 5E2 fighter jets, 24 Rafale fighter jets, and 46 MiG - 29M/M2 fighter jets. The scale of this fighter fleet is definitely considerable.

However, although the Egyptian Air Force has a large fighter fleet, there are also many problems, especially in air - combat performance. Both the United States and France are holding back on the Egyptian Air Force... Nearly 200 F - 16 series fighter jets sold by the United States to Egypt, whether it's the earliest F - 16A/B or the last batch, the F - 16C/D Block52 delivered around 2010, don't have strong beyond - visual - range air - combat performance. Moreover, the performance of the air - to - air missiles sold by the United States to Egypt is relatively poor. Checking the SIPRI database from 1980 to now, the United States has only sold two types of air - to - air missiles to Egypt, the AIM - 7M and the AIM - 9L/M: the former was sold in three batches in 1982, 1987, and 1996, about 850 in total; the latter was sold in large numbers in 1982, 1983, 1984, 1986, and 1996. In contrast, the Israeli Air Force next door can get support from the most advanced air - to - air missiles of the US military, from the AIM - 120D to the AIM - 9X, and the Israeli Air Force also has its own "Python" and "Derby" series of air - to - air missiles. The air - combat performance of the Egyptian Air Force's F - 16s is no match for that of the Israeli Air Force.

What about the French "Rafale" and "Mirage"? Their performance isn't much better either. France actually has some good missiles, and the "Meteor" air - to - air missile has good performance. But the problem is that France doesn't sell it to Egypt. It would even consider selling it to Turkey but not to Egypt. As a result, the "Rafale" fighter jets in Egypt are still using the oldest MICA missiles, which has almost emasculated the beyond - visual - range interception performance of the French - made fighter jets... After all, we all know that the no - escape zone of the MICA missile isn't much farther than that of some advanced fourth - generation dogfight missiles. As for those more than 40 MiG - 29M2s, since the Egyptian Air Force deployed them in the south and one was even captured by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan, there's not much to say. The air - combat performance of this aircraft is basically not up to par, and the performance of the Russian - made R - 77 air - to - air missile is also not good.

So, it's no wonder that Egypt is so excited about our J-10CE. Not to mention anything else, just the PL - 15E air - to - air missile with a range of 145 kilometers, which was publicly displayed at the China Airshow, can outperform all the beyond - visual - range interception weapons of the current Egyptian Air Force. It can even ensure that the air - combat ability of the Egyptian Air Force exceeds that of the F - 15I and F - 16I of the Israeli Air Force for the first time.

Overall, judging from this wave of publicity in Egypt, it is estimated that the J-10CE won't be far from officially entering the combat sequence of the Egyptian Air Force. It may be finalized this year. Let's just wait and see.