The Organisation for Economic Co - operation and Development (OECD) released an interim economic outlook report on the 17th, projecting that the global economy will grow by 3.1% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026. These figures are 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points lower than the forecasts in December last year respectively.
The report pointed out that the reasons for the downward adjustment include the increase in trade barriers between countries, as well as the pressure on investment and household spending caused by geopolitical and policy uncertainties. The global economy still faces significant risks and is further dividing. A larger - scale and broader - scope increase in trade barriers will hit global economic growth and exacerbate inflation. Meanwhile, higher - than - expected inflation will prompt the tightening of monetary policy and impact financial markets.
The report predicts that the U.S. economy will grow by 2.2% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026, 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points lower than the previous forecasts respectively. The eurozone economy is expected to grow by 1.0% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, both 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous forecasts.
The report also anticipates that the overall inflation rate of the Group of Twenty (G20) countries will decline from 5.3% in 2024 to 3.8% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026. Among them, the core inflation rate of developed economies is expected to drop from 2.7% in 2024 to 2.6% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026. In more than half of the developed economies, the core inflation rate will still be above the target level in 2026. The overall inflation rate of the United States is expected to be 2.8% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026, 0.7 and 0.6 percentage points higher than the previous expectations respectively.
The report noted that increased uncertainty and rising trade costs may push up wage and price pressures, and central banks around the world should remain vigilant. In addition, countries need to abide by fiscal discipline to ensure debt sustainability and maintain the government's ability to respond to future shocks.