What is the sales ceiling of semaglutide? Currently, no one can give a definite answer, but it's definitely not $30 billion.
On February 5th, Novo Nordisk released its 2024 annual report: total revenue reached 290.403 billion Danish kroner, approximately $42.1 billion, a year - on - year increase of 26%.
It is various versions of semaglutide that prop up Novo Nordisk's performance. In the past year, the revenue of Novo Nordisk's three semaglutide products was 201.849 billion Danish kroner, about $29.3 billion, nearly doubling the sales in 2023 ($21.2 billion).
Semaglutide is catching up rapidly and approaching the top - selling drug Keytruda. In 2024, Keytruda's sales were $29.482 billion.
Semaglutide's outstanding performance interprets Novo Nordisk's miracle of a 'giant dancing', and once again shows us the powerful profitability of a phenomenal product in the pharmaceutical industry. Calculated in RMB, Novo Nordisk 'earned' 580 million yuan per day in 2024.
Even facing challenges from competitors and the pressure of the US medical insurance system, semaglutide is very likely to become one of the best - selling drugs in history. While benefiting patients, it will continue to refresh its profit'myth'.
/ 01 / Novo Nordisk Beyond Expectations
In 2024, Novo Nordisk's performance exceeded market expectations.
Financial report data shows that the net profit of this Danish pharmaceutical giant in the fourth quarter increased by 29% year - on - year, reaching 28.23 billion Danish kroner ($3.98 billion), while the market previously expected only 26.09 billion Danish kroner. The annual net profit increased by 21%, reaching 100.99 billion Danish kroner, higher than the market expectation of 99.14 billion Danish kroner.
Behind Novo Nordisk's excellent performance, the star drug semaglutide contributes the most. In 2024, the total sales of semaglutide reached as high as $29.3 billion, accounting for about 69.5% of Novo Nordisk's total revenue. Among them, different versions of semaglutide performed differently, and the weight - loss version, Wegovy, had the most prominent growth rate.
Specifically, the sales of Ozempic (injectable version for diabetes) were 120.342 billion Danish kroner, a year - on - year increase of 26%. The sales of Rybelsus (oral version for diabetes) were 23.301 billion Danish kroner, a year - on - year increase of 26%. The sales of Wegovy (weight - loss version) were 58.206 billion Danish kroner, a year - on - year increase of 86%.
It can be said that because of the sharp increase in market demand for Wegovy, Novo Nordisk's net profit far exceeded expectations, which also reflects the extremely strong demand for weight - loss drugs in the US market.
From the perspective of regional revenue distribution, the United States is undoubtedly Novo Nordisk's main market. In 2024, nearly 80% (45.7 billion Danish kroner) of Wegovy's sales came from the US market, while the market share of other countries and regions was only about 20%.
It seems that for any drug, going global to the United States is a must - do thing.
/ 02 / Not at Full Throttle Yet
Where will semaglutide go? The market is full of disagreements.
It's easy to understand. The booming weight - loss drug market is full of competition and challenges, and the old rival Eli Lilly is eyeing this market.
Novo Nordisk itself also predicts that sales will slow down slightly in 2025. It expects that at constant exchange rates, sales growth in 2025 will slow to between 16% and 24%, lower than the 2024 forecast of 18% to 26%.
Of course, for a giant of this size, achieving this growth rate is not bad. Moreover, the growth of semaglutide itself will not be limited to the field of weight - loss indications.
In the past year, semaglutide has made many milestone - like progresses:
These include Wegovy being approved for a new indication of reducing the risk of cardiovascular events, Ozempic's new indication for treating peripheral artery disease (PAD) being filed in Europe and the United States, Rybelsus' new indication for reducing the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) who have been diagnosed with cardiovascular disease and/or chronic kidney disease being filed in Europe and the United States, and the success of Part 1 of Wegovy's Phase III MASH study.
The above indications are relatively unified in characteristics: the patient groups are extensive, and there is an urgent need for more effective treatments, and GLP - 1 may just be the key to solving the problem, corresponding to great commercial value.
A typical example is the MASH market.
On November 1st last year, Novo Nordisk announced the preliminary results of the Phase III clinical ESSENCE study of Wegovy for treating MASH, showing that compared with the placebo, Wegovy improved liver fibrosis without aggravating steatohepatitis and achieved the regression of steatohepatitis without aggravating liver fibrosis.
Specifically, at week 72, 37% of patients in the Wegovy group achieved improvement in liver fibrosis without deterioration of steatohepatitis, compared with 22.5% in the placebo group. 62.9% of patients in the Wegovy group achieved regression of steatohepatitis without deterioration of liver fibrosis, compared with 34.1% in the placebo group, and both endpoints were significant.
After placebo correction, the values of the above two endpoints were 14.5% and 28.8% respectively. Compared with other mechanisms such as THRβ and FGF21, Wegovy also has certain competitiveness in improving the fibrosis endpoint.
Although the current data are only the preliminary results of the ESSENCE study, and the final performance still needs time to verify, it still reflects that the total sales of semaglutide have not reached the ceiling.
/ 03 / The Breakout of Serious Medical Treatment
The myth of semaglutide is rare in the pharmaceutical industry. In essence, it is a special case of serious medical treatment breaking out of the traditional circle.
So - called serious medical treatment takes curing diseases and saving lives as the core goal. Originally, semaglutide had little to do with consumer medical treatment. After all, as a diabetes drug at the beginning, it belongs to a strictly defined serious medical drug, not a consumer medical drug.
Even the well - known weight - loss indication of semaglutide is also in the category of serious medical treatment. Its indication has strict requirements for prescriptions and strict restrictions on the patient group.
However, the emergence of semaglutide has brought an innovative drug solution for the treatment of obesity, and has also brought obesity back to the public's attention as a health issue. By successfully awakening the global obese population's awareness of healthy weight management, semaglutide has finally achieved great success and soared in brand popularity.
The popularity of semaglutide has also completely popularized GLP - 1. Currently, the market's enthusiasm for this field is high, and many enterprises are enjoying the spill - over benefits brought by semaglutide.
However, while enjoying the benefits, Novo Nordisk also brings inspiration to many pharmaceutical companies: no matter how high the popularity of semaglutide is, it is based on rigorous clinical research.
For example, the key to Wegovy's success lies in the certification of the rigorous STEP series of studies. As a large - scale global clinical study of Wegovy, the STEP series of studies included approximately 25,000 overweight and obese subjects. Through huge capital and time investment, a series of clear answers were obtained.
While raising the competition threshold, it also reminds all pharmaceutical companies that when chasing popular tracks, they must be based on solid clinical exploration and must not blindly follow the trend. Only by truly being responsible for patients can they possibly achieve commercial success.